The Digital Data Bubble

Lately, I prefer a positive outlook on the future, yet I do have a couple of concerns. One of these concerns is data. The data we create each days grows exponentially, yet no one seems to discuss what this means long term. "Data storage is basically free!" is the usual claim. But at some point, I believe the Digital Data Bubble will have to burst. I can imagine a day when the monthly cost of maintaining data in the cloud will be a significant part of the household budget.

Thought Experiment #1 - A Messy Garage

Your garage is packed with stuff so you move to a house with a bigger garage. The new, bigger garage gets crowded so you move some of the stuff to a storage unit. The storage unit gets crowded, so you get a bigger storage unit. You keep getting more storage units until you find out about an empty warehouse. You move all of your stuff out of the garage and storage units into this one warehouse, and to your relief it barely takes up any space. You now begin storing all of your new belongings and stuff in the warehouse and to your surprise, it soon fills up. 

Is it time to get another warehouse? No. It's long past the time to get rid of stuff. Plus, you're frustrated because now you can never find anything and it seems that you have more junk than stuff of value.

Thought Experiment #2 - A Forest

The forest is thick with trees and plants. Countless animals and insects live there. A tree dies and falls over, cluttering the forest floor. Insects, fungus, bacteria swarm the tree and decompose it until the nutrients it held are released into the ground. There is a natural, ecological balance that prevents the forest from getting too dense.

Conclusion 

We need a strategy to purge our old useless data before it becomes too costly and too overwhelming to manage. 

ChaptGPT, AI and the Singularity

 I thought I'd throw my hat in the ring with all of the talk on the future of AI. 

ChatGPT

After playing around with ChatGPT a little, I've decided to make it my life coach. I'm serious. For example, last night I asked ChatGPT "How can I get more people to buy the book I self-published on Amazon?" I got a very helpful, actionable response.

The Singularity

In case you haven't heard about it, the "Singularity" is this prediction that technology advancement will keep accelerating until it surpasses human ability to understand or control it. If you think technology is advancing fast now, just wait and it will advance even faster. Then keep repeating the last sentence until your head spins off.

A mathematical singularity goes to infinity at a certain point. For example, if it's determined that the singularity will happen on a specific date, then technological innovation will be infinite on that date.

My problem with this is hopefully represented by an example. When the COVID-19 pandemic started, nobody knew how big it would get. I started tracking the numbers and attempted to find a mathematical function that could be used to predict how big it would be. I found a very good fit with an exponential growth curve. But there was a problem. It predicted that as time went on, more people would get COVID than there existed on the planet. The function didn't account that COVID would run out of people to infect. (See My COVID post).

I believe that there are other similar systematic constraints with technological advancement that will prevent a singularity. I don't know what they are just like I didn't think of the constraints early in the pandemic. Maybe it will be limited by how much electricity we can produce, or by computer memory (an AI with infinite abilities will need infinite power and storage). Maybe it will be a fundamental limitation, like our programming languages don't support what this AI will need. Or, maybe the AI will need humans to help it replicate (it doesn't have an opposable thumb, yet), and there are only so many humans that will be able to do this. All of these are potential limitations.

AI

I've listened to several of Lex Fridman's podcasts on AI and the most recent one resonated with me: his interview with Manolis Kellis. I'll summarize my impression with what I think is likely to happen with AI. 

Currently, many of our highest paid fields require intelligence. For example, doctors, lawyers, scientists, engineers, software developers. With our very diverse population, there may be people more ideal for these roles, but they are exclude by intelligence filters. Only the intellectually elite can make it into these roles. For example, what if there was a grandma somewhere that had the right bed side manners, love, wisdom, perspective that would make her a better doctor, but she just doesn't know all of the technical doctoring stuff. In the future, she won't need to know the technical stuff, she can use AI trained on diseases and treatments to help her with this part. I know I'm oversimplifying as I would want to know that grandma had some level of training and competence. 

Today we have a similar case with machinery. You don't need the fastest runner if you have a car. You don't need to strongest with a pick and shovel if you have an excavator. You don't need the person with the loudest voice if you have a microphone (or a blog). AI has the potential to be just another tool that humans use.

I saw a funny post on Reddit r/ProgrammingHumor. Someone posted a text they got from a friend that used ChatGPT to write code. They asked their programmer friend "Now what do I do with this code? How can I use it?" Similarly, a home builder uses many tools to build a house, but those tools can't build the house on their own. You need a skilled person to use all of the tools. 

Can AI do harm? We'll find out.

The Problem with Human Evolution

 I just had this thought and wanted to capture it.

Can humans evolve to the point for we no longer have some of the traits that cause some of our current social ills?

For example:

Will we ever evolve to suppress our violent tendencies or war-like nature?

or develop altruistic traits (we have enough to feed and house everyone yet there are hungry and homeless)? or develop an ability to avoid logical fallacies?

I believe in social evolution. For example we no longer accept human or animal sacrifice. Most of us have abolished slavery. 

My answer to the first question is No: that humans will not evolve to resolve societal ills. My reason for this answer is the natural selection promotes the traits of the individual, while social evolution is just the collective understanding that gets programmed into our brains. The collective understanding can change (rather rapidly). But I can think of no reason why a more socially evolved person would have more offspring than a socially primitive person.

My Software Development Experience

Person1: "Can you develop this software for me?"

Me: "Here it is! Isn't it cool?"

Person1: "That's awesome!"

Person2: "Where's your documentation?"

Me: "Here's my document! Isn't it helpful?"

Person2: "That's awesome! So helpful!"

Person3: "Where's your requirements specification?"

Me: "Here it is."

Person3: "Thanks, that's exactly what I wanted!"

Person4: "Where's your test plan?"

Me: "Here it is."

Person4: "Perfect!"

Person5: "You documents don't use the right format."

Me: "Here they are in the right format."

Person5: "That's much better."

Person6: "Your software doesn't follow the coding standard."

Me: "Look, now it does."

Person6: "Thanks!"

Person7: "Your software needs to interface with these new standards."

Me: "Ok, now it does."

Person7:  "Thanks"

Person8: "I was looking at your software. Did you know this was already available as open source software?"

Me: "Do I still have a job?"

Person8: "Of course, we still need someone to integrate and test it."

Person9: "Actually, we can have GPT4 do all of that."

Me: "Again, do I still have a job?"

Person9: "Yes, we need someone who knows how to ask GPT4 the right questions."

I'm Transsocial

 It wasn't my choice. I was assigned shyness at birth. This social assignment was reinforced with statements like "he's quiet" or "he's shy". These labels and other reinforcing stereotypes resulted in me being  more shy and quiet. The identity was imprinted on me.

The truth was that I was a careful observer. I was thoughtful (I was also the youngest of 6 children and got talked over a lot). However, with the attention brought to my quietness too often, I became overly introspective. I ended up accepting and identifying with the labels.

As I got a little older and was put in more social situations, I started to experience social dysphoria. I didn't want to be shy or quiet. In side of me was a fun, social, extrovert just waiting to be released. But how can you change something like that? 

In high school, I exerted myself striving to be more outgoing. I had successes but still had the emotional scars and self doubt that made me unsafely self-aware of any inadequacy.

I've tried many therapies, including 7 years as a member of Toastmasters. It's only recently that I came to the realization that I no longer identify as shy. To further reinforce my new identity, my wife told me that when she tells her friends (who happen to know me now) about my previous shyness, they are incredulous and can't imagine it. I guess I am successfully "passing" in my new identity.

Suggestions for Raising Shy Children

If you notice that your child demonstrates traits of shyness, I have some recommendations. My only expertise is as a transsocial myself, parent of adult children and grandparent. My experience scientifically represents a very small sample size, but I still offer these suggestions.

1. Avoid labeling the child. Avoid saying "You are shy" or anything similar.
2. If you feel like you have to draw attention to their behavior, pick positive traits "Wow, you were so brave climbing that ladder!", "That was nice of you to share your toy", etc.
3. Give them opportunities for positive social experiences (e.g. sports, clubs, family gatherings).
4. When introducing them to others, bring up things that they are proud of, "This is Mike, he likes to play with Legos".
5. Make it safe to talk to you. Let them express their emotions and validate how they feel. Don't try to talk them out of or into feeling another way.
6. Have crucial conversations in private. "I noticed that you were more quiet than normal around Suzie. Can you tell me about that?"

 

Making Sense of California's Electric Policy

TL/DR;

• An energy crisis due to a seasonal heat-wave in California was possibly averted by large batteries that stored excess generation capacity
• The policies supporting a transition to EVs could help with future energy crises if the batteries become extra energy storage on the grid

Update October 9, 2022

This article supports my conclusions:

https://www.businessinsider.com/electric-car-wont-overload-electrical-grid-california-evs-2022-10

This article contradicts my conclusions:

https://news.stanford.edu/press-releases/2022/09/22/charging-cars-honight-not-way-go/

Background

On August 25, 2022, California announced that by 2035 100% of new cars and light trucks sold in the state will be zero-emission vehicles.

On September 1, 2022 (exactly one week later) I got a loud notification on my phone, a Flex Alert from the state to reduce my use of electricity during the hours of 4 to 9 p.m, including avoiding charging electric vehicles (EVs).

These two facts seem to make California out of touch with reality. However, I think the policy has the potential to make sense.

Here's why:

We use electricity. Lot's and lot's of it 

To get electricity you need two things:

1. Energy Source (gas, coal, potential energy of water in a reservoir, uranium, sun light, wind, waves)
2. Electric Generation (energy sources are consumed to spin electric generators, photo voltaic cells convert sunlight, etc.). 

When you need it, you need it

We've been spoiled by Amazon's fast delivery times, but when I turn on my light or computer or TV or washing machine, I don't want a text notification that tells me my electricity will be delivered in a few minutes. I expect to get it instantly and power companies manage to provide it. They put another electric generator online and start consuming some of the stored energy.

Energy use varies during the day. Use is lowest while most of us sleep and our refrigerators are the main consumers. It increases as we awake and turn on lights and appliances. It peaks around noon as we enlist our air conditioners to keep us cool.

Avoid Peak Usage

We used to be told to use appliances in the morning or evening to avoid adding demand during peak usage. Now, with widespread solar installations on homes and businesses, peak solar generation coincides with peak air conditioning usage and the new peak is when we get home from school and work and turn on lights and appliances.  

During extra hot days, when air conditioners run longer, the generation grid can get stressed near the max. Any failures of equipment can be catastrophic. 

This is when Flex Alert notices are sent out, basically asking for citizens to help out.

Why not just build more Power Plants?

The extra generation capacity could be added to avoid this problem, but that would mean spending billions of dollars just to provide extra capacity during a a few hours for a few weeks of the year.

California already has extra capacity as it can generate 45 gigawatts of  power while the demand during hot months is about 38 gigawatts (1). 

Wouldn't it be better if California could use it's excess capacity during lower demand times and store up the electricity? Yes it would!

Offsetting Capacity by Storing Electricity

The Olivenhain Dam is a gravity dam near Escondido California above Lake Hodges (2). During the peak hours, water flows through hydroelectric generators to Lake Hodges. At night, when there is excessive generation capacity from other sources, that capacity is used to pump water back into the Olivenhain reservoir.

More recently, massive industrial grade batteries have been used to store the extra capacity(3) and helped avert an energy crisis (4). How much capacity do these batteries have? More than the output of the Diablo Nuclear power plant .  

Could EV Batteries be Used to Support the Grid?

Already, homes equipped with solar panels can provide energy to the grid when generating more electricity than a home uses. This is the main reason for peak usage switching from mid-day to evenings. 

Many EV owners charge their vehicles off hours to take advantage of cheaper rates. With the EV batteries essentially connected to the grid, EV owners have the potential to sell the cheaper energy in their batteries during the peak hours and make a profit (or for other incentives) all while helping create a more stable grid.

Conclusion

California's policy of all new vehicle sales by 2035, while having other issues not covered here (e.g. what about people that don't want EVs or what's the face of the ICE vehicles), may help balance our state's energy consumption throughout the day easing the peak demands on the grid.

1 https://www.physics.uci.edu/~silverma/demand.html#:~:text=During%20the%20winter%20from%20October,Cal%2DISO%20controls%2045%2C000%20megawatts.

2 https://www.sdcwa.org/projects-programs/facilities/olivenhain-dam-reservoir/

3 https://www.energy.ca.gov/data-reports/energy-insights/buy-low-sell-high-how-batteries-are-cleaning-grid

4 https://www.energy-storage.news/californias-fleet-of-battery-storage-working-to-avert-energy-crisis/

Ethical Thinking

 In "The Miniature Guide to Critical Thinking", by Richard Paul and Linda Elder, the idea of ethical thinking was presented. I like to create models to help me understand the ideas, so here's my model.

Imagine groups of people with common thinking patterns, beliefs, biases, etc. You find yourself in one of the groups, most likely due to your upbringing, where you grew up and who you associated with. 

As you've developed critical thinking skills, you managed to make some sense of the complicated world we live in. You learn that these skills apply as much to yourself as others, even when inconvenient. You have developed...

Intellectual Integrity or, consistent standards for thinking that you apply to yourself and others.

Soon you start finding problems with the way your group thinks.  You feel an obligation to be true to your new understandings and not shy away, in spite of any negative consequences.  What you need is...

Intellectual Courage or, the ability to face difficult ideas that go against your previously held ideas.

Next you find that the framework for thinking of your group is not working anymore. Also, members of your group keep pushing back on your courageous thinking. What you need is...

Intellectual Autonomy or, having control of your own beliefs and values. But it feels lonely going it alone. What you need is... 

Intellectual Perseverance or, the ability to endure hardships and stick to your principles. Even then, you still need to live in this world and interact with others that don't use critical thinking. What you need is...

Intellectual Empathy or, an understanding of the forces and conditions that have lead to others thinking and believing how they do. It also helps us remember when we ourselves had similar ways of thinking. This often leads to...

Intellectual Humility or, an awareness of the limitations in our own understanding, biases and egocentrism.  You realize that you don't know as much as you think you know.