Tuesday, December 9, 2008

1929 to 2008 Stock Market Crash Comparison - Using Google Spreadsheet

This is the same as a previous posting, but instead I'm using Google Spreadsheets to see if it will be easier to update the data.

The Dow Jones Industrial average (^DJI) is scaled from 1929 by 14000/400. Day "zero" corresponds to October 24, 1929 and Oct 7, 2008.

Update: August. 1, 2015:  I learned an important lesson from this post.  I can't and shouldn't try to predict the future.

Update: Feb. 12, 2010: Scale Time Axis for 1929 (see Market Oscillations)

Added Sept. 23, 2010, 100-day moving average and 1987 Crash data.
Update May 3, 2013, New chart type


djupp said...

Scaled * 2.65? I think that basically destroys your premise that they follow at all the same pattern. Are you afraid of just showing it the way it is?

Ron said...

The rationale for scaling is outlined in another post. See link in "update" above. Basically, our markets are significantly larger today than they were in 1929. The result is that what 1 trading day could do in 1929 takes about 2-3 trading days today. Just a theory, but so far supported my the trend in the market.

SaltyDog said...

I've been keeping an eye on this and the Fed has been trying to keep us from falling off the cliff, but it doesn't look like there is much else that they can do about it. Thanks for the comparison.