Friday, October 23, 2020

Progress in the Presidential Debate: I'd like to see more of this

I would like to acknowledge Kristen Welker for the great job she did moderating the debate.  I would also like to acknowledge the engineers that developed the microphone kill switch so that the candidates could be controlled from talking over each other. 

Here's a couple of quotes from the debate last Thursday that I would like to see more of.  They showed the most honesty that I viewed the whole evening.  

Regarding COVID-19

[10:58] TrumpIt's not my fault that it came here... You know what, it's not Joe's fault that it came here either.

[18:58] Trump: ...So he's allowed to make mistakes, he happens to be a good person. [Referring to Fauci]

Regarding Immigration

BidenBecause we made a mistake...

Regarding the Crime Bill in the 80s and 90s

Biden...It was a mistake. I've been trying to change it since then...

The general theme I agree with is that stuff happens that you can't blame on anyone and people make mistakes.  The truth is that this is a very complex world and no single person or policy is going to fix it.    Some things may never be fixed (poverty, crime, disease).  No candidate or political party, even yours, is going to solve problems that have existed for millenia.  Not even your candidate.  Sometimes it is better to do nothing than to try the solution that you are 100% absolutely sure will work, even though there is no evidence that in this particular circumstance it will work.

  

Tuesday, October 20, 2020

You Can Rewrite History But You Can't Change History

Imagine if all of power houses of the earth decided to change history. For a specific example, let's say they wanted to erase the history of ancient Egypt, the pharaohs, the pyramids, etc. What if all of the military might descended on Egypt and with their greatest weapons, nuclear and conventional, pulverize the Pyramids and ancient ruins to dust. Foot soldiers invaded all of the museums in the world and confiscated Egyptian artifacts. The largest and most powerful corporations funded people to enter all of the libraries and remove any book with reference to ancient Egypt. The tech giants crawled the internet and removed all electronic information. Thought police were hired to prevent anyone from teaching or even talking about ancient Egypt. 

Then writers were hired to create new history books about ancient Egypt. The new history would say that ancient Egyptians were a bunch of shepherds or nomads or something. Wiki pages would support the new history. Web pages would refer to the new history. 

If a whole new history of ancient Egypt is created, would that change history? The facts would remain. There were, in fact, Pyramids, temples and other amazing architecture. There were pharaohs. There was a an elaborate culture. 

Over time, some small scrap of paper would emerge. A book, previously lost or hidden, would be found. A forgotten temple would be unearthed.  All with fragments of the true history.

Does this seem far fetched?  In 1945, fifty-two papyrus texts were found concealed in an earthenware jar buried in the Egyptian desert, known as the Nag Hammadi library.  The texts were most likely hidden from people that wanted to destroy them.  They wanted to write their own history.

I learned about this from a book I recovered from my deceased uncle's library: "The Gnostic Gospels" by Elaine Pagels.  The book, ironically was destined for the refuse pile (what do you do with 1,300 books?).  It was an interesting revelation.  There were schisms and disagreements in the early Christian church: about the nature of Christ, how to obtain salvation, authority, etc.  The Catholic church prevailed with their ideology and managed to destroy what they perceived as the heretical ideas of the gnostics.  I like some ideas of the gnostics and am saddened to think that "might" won out over "right".

There are forces today that want to curate history. They want to curate what truth is to fit their purposes. Most likely what you consider truth is a fabrication. Most likely your staunchest ideological opponent believes a false narrative as well. There may not be a single public person with an accurate picture of truth.  It takes skepticism, doubt, curiosity, diligent inquiry, openness, effort to come to the truth.  Your biases may prevent you from seeing it.  If it is too easy for you to believe it, it's probably not true.  

I've heard of several reports where people have posted on their social media that if their friend votes or supports the opposite party or candidate, then they don't want to be friends.  Yikes!  I hope we can settle down after this election and learn to be more civil. Meanwhile, don't despair. Humans have been disagreeing for a long time.  And in my humble opinion, life keeps getting better.

Saturday, October 3, 2020

Looking at the Numbers Part 4: Follow-up on Previous Pandemic Insights

 I've been wanting to go back an evaluate my previous posts on the Pandemic:

Looking at the Numbers: COVID-19 New Cases

Looking at the Numbers Part 2: COVID-19 Cases in the U.S.

Looking at the Numbers Part 3: Insight into the COV-19 Pandemic using a simulation

TL;DR

  • Claim: the pandemic was following a log-normal distribution
    • While the log-normal is useful, the pandemic resembles a more complicated superposition of multiple log-normal distributions.
  • Claim: the future can be predicted using log-normal distribution and/or percentage of population
    • Partially true
      • I predicted total cases for CA, FL, TX would be much larger than expected at the time (actual numbers have exceeded my prediction).
      • Log-Normal cannot predict future outbreaks (Example: Italy, Russian, Japan and Spain)
  • My original claim that many populous countries were just starting to "blow" up and poorer countries will most likely do worse.  This is proven false in the case of Bangladesh and India with lower death rates than the U.S.
  • Claim: Re-opening will most likely result in a rise of cases
    • True

Log-Normal Distribution

Claim: A Log-Normal distribution appears to be a surprising good fit to the number of new cases in various countries

The claim seems to be mostly true if a country or state doesn't make major changes to their response to COVID.

For example, Brazil seems to be following a Log-Normal distribution for COVID-19 cases.  Below are the best fit cumulative and distributions.
Most other countries, however show a resurgence of cases.  Only the distribution function is shown.  For these cases, it appears that the distributions appear as a superposition of two or more log-normal curves. 





Predicting the Future

Claims: 
  • The log-normal is able to predict the future growth of the virus assuming no later waves
  • The trend shows that the maximum expected total cases will be about 2% of the population
  • Several populous states have a ways to go

The problem with this claim is that in all cases, there is a later wave.  Still, I believe that the log-normal can help provide an expectation of how a current outbreak in a locale will play out.  Some examples:

Second Outbreaks

On May 9, 2020, I predicted that Italy would have 246k cases.  It hit this number at the end of July (as predicted) however a month later, the cases started climbing again.  It retrospect, I remember looking at the regions of Italy that had been infected and I noticed there were many other populous areas with low infection rates.  So I am not surprised in the later rise, but I also had no way to predict when it would start nor how large it will be.
Other countries that have had secondary outbreaks (Japan, Russian, Spain).






Populous States

On May 24, 2020, I predicted that California, Texas and Florida would have significantly more cases based on the assumption that peak cases would be about 2% of the population.  This assumption of 2% ended up being too low for many states (Florida and Arizona are both over 3% of the population infected).

StatePopulationTotal Cases to DateEstimate from May 24Actual Oct. 3
CA39,144,81888,226694,670826,624
TX27,469,11452,268497,114766,559
FL20,271,27248,675356,750711,804


California's continually changing policies (partial shutdown, full shutdown, partial reopening, etc.) have resulted in a distribution that cannot be fit to a log-normal.


Populous Countries


On May 9, 2020, I noted that some of the most populous countries were just starting to see the pandemic: 
 India, Russia, Brazil, Mexico, Indonesia, Bangladesh, Pakistan, Nigeria.  Though I wrote in my post that  "It's too early to tell how this will play out worldwide", I alluded to my hypothesis that they would experience a more severe pandemic.  The table below does not support this hypothesis.  

CountryMay 9Oct 3Death Rate for those infected
United States1,283,9297,332,2852.8%
Brazil145,3284,880,5233.0%
India59,6626,473,5441.6%
Russia187,8591,194,6431.8%
Mexico31,522753,09010.4%
Bangladesh13,134366,3831.4%
Indonesia13,112295,4993.7%
Pakistan27,474313,9842.1%



Two cases stand out: India and Bangladesh.  India is quickly approaching the U.S. in number of cases but has a death rate nearly half of the U.S.  Bangladesh has an even lower death rate and the total number of cases are very small (0.2% of the population infected compared to the U.S. at 2.2%). And it appears that cases in Bangladesh are on a steady decline.

Re-opening will most likely result in a rise of cases

Here is my prediction using a scale-free model.  The total cases, time scale, relative size and time of peaks could not be accurately modeled.



Here is what happened in the U.S. after many states relaxed the rules around May or June.