Atlas Shrugged

I saw the movie Atlas Shrugged this weekend.

Four years ago I was sharing my frustrations at work with a coworker and she said I had to read "Atlas Shrugged".  The fictional world of Atlas Shrugged resembled my work environment a little too much.  I slogged through, then got hooked and ended up enjoying the book.  The book also had a big impact on my life: I quit my frustrating job.  I now owe Atlas Shrugged a favor.

The 1950's story is surprisingly relevant today and the movie manages to tell the story as occurring in 2016.  I thought the casting was very true to the original characters.  I thought the movie's quality was slightly better than "made for TV", but I still recommend everyone see the movie Atlas Shrugged (remember, I owe it a favor).

Seeing the movie will:

1. Save you the effort of reading the 1000+ pages (or if you already read it, you probably don't need to be told to see the movie).
2. Provide economic support to complete the Trilogy, and I want to see the rest of the story told (apparently you can't fit 1000+ pages of material into one 1.5 hour movie).
3. Help spread the idea that excessive meddling by bureaucrats can potentially result in catastrophe.
4. Help show how many people support the previous point.

Orthorexia

Have you ever had someone bring a veggie burger to your barbeque?  Have you ever had an "intervention" by a concerned friend or family member who preached about the "correctness" of their "healthy" diet?  Did they get defensive when you provided counter evidence to their dogma?  Or, maybe that person is you (If you feel defensive, it's okay.  That's a normal response).

These behaviors relate to the condition "orthorexia", which refers to an extreme obsession with only eating "healthy" (derives from the Greek "Ortho" for "correct or right" and "orexis" meaning "appetite").  When I was a kid, it was called "health nut". 

Not that eating healthy is a disorder.  There is plenty of evidence that a healthy diet can reduce the incidence of cancer, diabetes and cardiovascular disease.  This is how the term "Western Diseases" was coined.  However with all of the conflicting information on health, its not surprising that such a "disorder" could exist (it's not officially a disorder yet).

Here's a little self-test to determine if you or a loved one are orthorexic: Self-test from MetroActive

Here's a confessional from a recovering orthorexic (and the person who coined the term): Health Food Junkie

Tsunami Inundation Maps for California

The Tsunami in Japan was larger than prepared for, which raises the question: "Are you vulnerable to a Tsunami?".  I found this analysis of "Tsunami Inundation" for California:

http://www.conservation.ca.gov/cgs/geologic_hazards/Tsunami/Inundation_Maps/Pages/Statewide_Maps.aspx

Keep clicking to drill down to detailed maps.

Islamic Radicalization Hearings

The media calls these Congressional hearings a "witch-hunt" similar to the days of the "red scare" when McCarthyism lead to Hollywood Blacklisting.

Luckily I was able to watch a portion of the hearings on my favorite reality show (C-SPAN).  As a result I feel less frightened and more sympathetic towards American Muslims.  I think we've come a long way as a country in the last 60-70 years in how we can discuss sensitive issues like this.

The Democrats were united in objecting every chance they got, saying that these hearings would only result in Islamophobia.  They wanted the hearings to be fair and include all of the Christian terrorists groups as well.  In fairness to them, I think they helped keep it civil by reminding everyone of the dangers in discussing such a sensitive subject.

The Republicans made the point that is was about time this hearing happened as there was no Congressional hearing on the Fort Hood shootings (which killed 13 people and injured 29) 2 years ago, though a hearing was held on Toxic FEMA Trailers which apparently had killed no one.


A Muslim witness also pointed out that the government report on the Fort Hood shootings made no mention of the radical Islamic motivation of the shooter[1].  He made the analogy that if you are trying to get rid of cancer, but are not allowed to mention it in any way, then you will have a hard time removing it. He said it is time to talk about the cancer. 


I only watched a portion, but what I heard seemed fair minded and from what I could tell the millions of peace loving American Muslims outnumber the extremist American-hating Muslims.

There were many good sound bites, but my favorite was the Los Angeles County Sheriff talking about reading the Koran and sharing the true message of Islam :)

Winners!!

The best reality show on TV today is C-SPAN.  It temporarily took second place last week to the "winner", the Charlie Sheen Show.

If you haven't watched C-SPAN, let me elaborate the storyline.
 The United States is falling apart.  People are losing their jobs.  Everyday, families are evicted from their homes adding to the growing homeless population.  Food prices are rising and children go to bed hungry.  Gas and fuel prices are skyrocketing.  At the same time, the world is losing confidence in the U.S. with soaring debts.  Anti-U.S. sentiment and terrorism are growing.  Little-by-little, China is buying U.S. debt and will soon have enormous power over us.  Our heros, the representatives of the people, the Democrats (D) and Republicans (R) stand tall and firm.  They are the only ones who are willing to step up and claim the power to save us from all of our woes.

Scene 1 (The Debate floor):

The (D) tags the (R) and says "it's all your fault, your it".  Then the (R) tags the (D) back and says "no, it's all your fault, your it".  The (D) tags the (R) and says "your it, no tag backs".  The (R) tags the (D) and says "undo no tag backs, your it, double no tag backs".

Winners!!

GDP and the Price of Crude Oil

I read that Gross Domestic Product (GDP) lags the price of crude oil.  When the price goes up, then GDP goes down.  I decided to look into this and produced the chart below of actual and predicted GDP as a function of time. Since the lag is about 6 months, the predictions extend 6 months into the future. Note that the prediction shows a significant drop in GDP by September 2011 (Which agrees with many analysts).

This is a Google Document, so I'll try and update as new data is available.



I scaled the Oil Prices to 2010 dollars using the CPI data. Then, I used the following simple formula:

GDP_Predicted(date) = a * OilPrice(date - lag) + b

I know that there are many other factors driving GDP, but there seems to be an apparent correlation here. Time will tell whether the predictions show any validity. I probably should have learned my lesson on trying to predict financial futures, since my Stock Predictions failed about 7 months ago (most likely due to Bernanke's QE2).

Data Sources
GDP www.bea.gov
Oil prices www.eia.doe.gov
CPI www.bls.gov

Dieting and Cutting the Deficit

Pres. Obama announced that he plans on cutting the deficit in half. [1]  Sounds like a step in the right direction, but consider this:

You had the perfect physique in High School, but every year you've put on a few pounds and the last two years you gained 20 pounds each year.  You now weigh an extra 200 lbs and your doctor and loved ones are pleading for you to lose weight.  You promise to cut your weight gain in half!  Notice the subtle insertion of the word "gain".  What this really means is that you will still gain 10 lbs next year.  Not exactly losing weight.

The deficit is like your annual weight gain and debt is like the total weight you need to lose.  For example, the Federal deficit for fiscal year 2009 was $1.4 trillion (million million) [2] while the debt is ten times that (about $14 trillion) [3. The Debt Clock].  Cutting the deficit in half still means the debt is growing.

I wonder how fat we'll get before we go on a real diet.