Alan Greenspan's "Age of Turbulence"

I just finished reading Alan Greenspan's book "The Age of Turbulence: Adventures in a New World".  The first part of the book was more of a biography, which I found very interesting.  He played the saxophone in Big Bands before becoming a financial guru.  Then he had the amazing opportunity to either interact or work with Presidents Richard Nixon, Gerald Ford, Ronald Reagan, George Bush Sr., Bill Clinton and George Bush Jr.  It was nice to have his rather non-political insights into these men.

Following the biographical section was his take on various countries, then various economic issues: from Oil to global warming.  At times he gets a little too technical.

My impression is that Alan Greenspan is incredibly intelligent with a vast understanding of many economic issues, yet he is still a man with limitations.  He was probably the most trustworthy person to have the responsibility that he held, yet I question whether too much power was given to a single individual. 

The greatest argument for my opinion is that while the book was written in late 2007, he is forecasting where the economy might be in the year 2030, but was blind to the pending financial collapse.  He did mention the risk of credit default swaps, but claimed that the New York Federal Reserve Bank was taking care of it and he didn't expect it to be a problem.

Sometimes a person can be so brilliant, that by comparison to other mere mortals their judgement is clouded into thinking they have supreme, flawless judgement.  There is no way to know whether the U.S. economy is better or worse off having had Mr. Greenspan at the helm.  Either way, after reading this book I find that I respect him and agree with many of his views.

...everything can be taken from a man but one thing...

"We who lived in concentration camps can remember the men who walked through the huts comforting others, giving away their last piece of bread. They may have been few in number, but they offer sufficient proof that everything can be taken from a man but one thing: the last of the human freedoms—to choose one's attitude in any given set of circumstances, to choose one's own way."

Viktor Frankl, Man's Search for Meaning

That's Not in My American History Book

Just finished listening to the audio book "That's Not in My American History Book" by Thomas Ayres.  An interesting book with rich source of historical anecdotes.  Here are some patterns I noticed in these stories (the best is the last one):

The Hero
American History loves it's heroes.  Heroes are created for a variety of reasons.  

1. Literary License.  An author wants to make his story better, so he makes the hero bigger than life.  This is partly how the Wild West was born.  
• Example: Belle Star wasn't a beautiful female Robin Hood, but instead a mentally deranged woman who once stole some milk cows. 
2. Preserving Character -  A prominent figure performs a truly heroic act so flaws are suppressed so that their memory is not tainted.
• Example:  George Washington actually lost many battles and nearly lost the war.
3. Promotion - History is invented to promote a relative, political candidate, etc.
• Example: There is no real evidence that Betsy Ross made the first "stars and stripes".  The first time she was brought to public attention was by her grandson in 1870.
4. Conspiracy - Besides heroes, we also need good villains to blame things on.  Drastic events need a good explanation
• There is compelling evidence that John Wilkes Booth escaped and moved to Texas and that there was a cover up related to the person who was killed and lies in Booth's grave. 

Drugs and Alcohol
I ended up attending a youth conference/retreat for our church and some of the youth obligingly let me listen to the book on our drive.  They actually seemed to enjoy it, making comments and even asking me to resume playing the book after a short stop.  I noticed this while driving with them.

1. Apparently one of the reasons General Custer lost and died at the Battle of the Little Bighorn (besides the Indians being better armed) was that his troops had been drinking (their canteens where found filled with whiskey).  Custer split his forces, with Captain Benteen in charge of part of the forces.  Benteen's group survived and it is believed that a hangover prevented him from making the rational decision to help defend Custer.
2. America's Shortest War (in Texas after the Civil War) lasted only a day after the victors returned to town, got drunk, and then were defenseless against the returning U.S. Army.
3. Salem Witch trials may have been caused by the side effects of drugs that resembled being possessed by evil spirits or being under a witches spell.

Prejudice
Another pattern in suppressed history is due to prejudice.

1. Gustav Albin Weisskopf was a German immigrant that designed and flew airplanes before before the Wright Brothers.  Apparently his accomplishments were ignored due to prejudice towards immigrants.
2. Heroines of the Battlefield - many woman disguised themselves as men to fight in the Civil War.  Sibyl Ludington was a young girl "Paul Revere".  Sexism has made it hard for these woman to get proper recognition they deserve.
3. James Beckwourth was a mountain man and explorer.  He discovered the pass through the Sierra Nevada mountains to California (now known as Beckwourth Pass).  His adventures are incredible.  You probably haven't heard much of him.  He's African American.  

In Conclusion, I highly recommend learning a broader spectrum of our history.

The Wow Event

I just finished reading "13 Things That Don't Make Sense: The Most Baffling Scientific Mysteries of Our Time" by Michael Brooks.  I enjoyed the book and found it thought provoking.  Here are a couple of thoughts.

The Wow! Event

The Wow! event or Wow! Signal was a radio signal detected by SETI (Search for Extra Terrestrial Intelligence) in 1977.  There is no scientific explanation for the signal and it excited researchers who considered it as possible evidence of intelligent beings outside of our Solar System.  The signal lasted 72 seconds and has not been detected since. The signal provided no information other than a location in the sky.

Scientists have also been probing Mars for life and searching the cosmos for the existence of inhabitable planets.  The idea is that someday, we may want or need to find somewhere to live besides earth.  Mars is significantly less habitable than the more inhabitable location on earth.  The nearest star with habitable planets would take about 60,000 years to reach with our fastest space craft [1]

I find it ironic that many scientists are critical of religion's:

1. Belief in an intelligent being that does not live on this earth.
• Trying to communicate with this being through prayer.
• For many, a great source of comfort when they "claim" to have communicated with this being.
2. Belief that after this life, there is a place we will go to live.
• There is no way experience this place in this lifetime.

How is SETI and the search for habitable planets any less acceptable than some of the religious beliefs and practices of today?

Placebo and Homeopathy
Another interesting subject in the book is the placebo effect and homeopathy.  The placebo effect is getting health benefits from something like a sugar pill just because we are told it will help.  A couple of interesting points:

A morphine drip will help with pain.  At some point, the morphine can be substituted by saline solution with the same effect.  This is placebo in action.  Now the tricky part.  There is a medicine that, when administered, will block the effects of morphine.  It will also block the placebo effects of the saline solution. 


Another tricky fact: it is harder for drug companies to get approval for new medications, since they have to perform better than placebos.  The problem is that placebos are getting better!  The explanation is that people have more faith in medicine, so that are more responsive to even placebos.

Homeopathy is the practice of diluting a harmful substance to provide a cure.  I guess that it is so diluted, than none of the original substance exists.  I'm still on the fence with Homeopathy, but apparently it has an effect better than a placebo.  There is something unexplainable yet real there.  I think the current problem with Homeopathy is that it is "diluted" with a lot of quackery, so you can never know if you are getting something that actually works.

Free Will
I guess there are scientists who believe that free will is not real.  They claim our behaviors are just a result of complex chemical and biological reactions.  I acknowledge that our behavior is strongly influenced by nature.  People with brain injuries and other diseases have been known to change their personalities and behavioral patterns.  But to say that all that man has created: music, art, architecture, automobiles, airplanes, man walking on the moon, the computer and the internet are just a result of chemical compulsion seems silly.  I think our lives and our world is a product of will vs. nature.  I would like to think will is winning.  As Robert Frost wrote

...
Two roads diverged in a wood, and I--
I took the one less traveled by,
And that has made all the difference.". 

A Time To Fight

I just finished reading Senator Jim Webb's book "A Time To Fight".  Jim Webb is a Vietnam Vet (Marine) who climbed the military ranks to become Secretary of the Navy.  He's also a successful author.  I enjoyed his book (with the exception of typical political self-promotion and opponent bashing).  A couple of the key take-aways:

Japanese Prison System
Senator Webb had the unique opportunity to visit a Japanese prison.  Compared to the U.S., Japan has highly trained prison guards, about 1/10th the prisoners per capita, of which they keep in prison for a shorter period.  They have the of re-integrating the prisoner into society (they teach work skills, respect, etc.)  When asked how they started this they replied that they have been doing this for over a century.  How did they develop this system?  They learned it from the U.S. and Germany.  Where did we go wrong and how do we fix it?

War Strategy
Senator Webb was very critical of the war in Iraq.  His description helped me to better frame my opinion about the war. I believe in being supportive of our troops while at the same I generally oppose having gone there in the first place.  I believe that we justly carried out the war and have done good there.

The issue is long term strategy vs. short term tactics.  In the game of chess (for example), you have to consider the value of all your pieces.  You might make a sacrifice, but only for a greater advantage. 

• Global Relations - Before the Iraq war, the U.S. had basically universal support in the war on terror.  Our motives are now in question and support has fallen.
• Financial Costs - The $1 trillion and counting cost of the war was an unfortunate expenditure considering our current crisis.  The additional cost was that it resulted in turning over Congress to the Democrats with basically an open line of credit.  
• Human Cost -  
• ~4,000 U.S. Deaths [1]
• ~30,000 U.S. wounded .
• ~300,000 to 500,000 with mental health issues.  This was according to an article in a recent issue of the USC Alumni magazine that claims 1 in 3 will return with problems.  Another article claims 1 in 5. [2]   About 1.6 million people have served to date.
• ~100,000 Iraqi Deaths
• 1-3 million Iraqi refugees [3]
• Balance of Power -  This wasn't in "A Time To Fight" but I read another article about the FBI agent, George Piro, that gained Saddam Hussein's confidence [4].  He found that "[Saddam's] prewar weapons of mass destruction deceptions were a ruse to convince Iran - whom he feared - that he had an arsenal." [5] Since we now seem to be worried about Iran, maybe a better strategy would have been to leave Saddam Hussein in power to counter-balance Iran.
  

I'm sure there are plenty of benefits to the war, but I'm still not convinced that overall strategy for the Iraq war makes any sense at all.

Sources:
[1] siadapp.dmdc.osd.mil/personnel/CASUALTY/OIF-Total-by-month.pdf
[2] www.news-medical.net/news/2008/04/18/37529.aspx
[3] en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_casualties_of_war
[4] pubrecord.org/world/2425/saddam-husseins-fbi-interviews-revealed/
[5] http://www.nydailynews.com/news/national/2007/11/13/2007-11-13_in_book_fbi_agent_says_saddam_hussein_cr-2.html#ixzz0rqWWi3a7" 

The Boy Who Harvested the Wind

This is a review of William Kamkwamba's book "The Boy Who Harvested the Wind". This book is an amazing story of life in Africa today, told first hand. It shows:

• The superstitions that still exist.
• Struggles of individuals due to lack of education and other opportunities, as well as alcohol abuse.
• Political corruption that lead to a devastating famine.
• First hand account of the famine.
  
• The story of individuals struggling to survive.
• The amazing inventiveness of one boy to improve the quality of life for his family and village by building a windmill out of junk.

Many of my views were reconfirmed by this story.

• Human suffering is tragic and real.
• Giving aid to corrupt governments is a VERY ineffective way to reduce this suffering.
• Local community leaders are a better source of meeting the needs of a community.
  
• Solutions to problems can come from the most unexpected places.
• Providing people opportunities to learn and help themselves is the best solution.

Here's a video of William Presenting what he did at a TED conference.



Here's a clip from a documentary:

Assault on Reason

This is a review of Al Gore's book "Assault on Reason". If you're familiar with my views, you may be surprised that I would even read his book, but I am seriously trying to be more "civil" in my discussions [1].

Pres. Obama actually made a valid point in his commencement address at the University of Michigan [2] about listening to opposing viewpoints:

Still, if you’re somebody who only reads the editorial page of The New York Times, try glancing at the page of The Wall Street Journal once in a while. If you’re a fan of Glenn Beck or Rush Limbaugh, try reading a few columns on the Huffington Post website. It may make your blood boil; your mind may not be changed. But the practice of listening to opposing views is essential for effective citizenship.

A year ago I read the "Conscience of a Liberal" by Paul Krugman and so I figured it was time for another dose of opposing views.

I was actually quite surprised by how much I enjoyed and agreed with Al Gore's book. He made a good case about the problems of politics in the U.S. today, presenting scientific studies and other information. He discussed the problem of special interests and how they manipulate the political conversation and agenda.

The problem that I had with this book is that after a convincing discourse on America's "assault on reason", it then proceeded to carry out an "assault on reason". The book waged a full attack on President Bush and Republicans. Everything they did was criminal. Not one mention was made of any crimes made by Democrats. "Reason" and civil discourse lead me to acknowledge the faults in my own thoughts and beliefs and recognize the good in opposing views.

Al Gore missed an opportunity to do this. I was surprised to actually make it half-way through the book before getting tired of the force-feeding of anti-Bushisms. I think the best way to summarize this book is "A spoon full of sugar helps the kool-aid go down".

Blink

Blink is the 3rd book I've read that was written by Malcolm Gladwell (The others were Outliers and Tipping Point).

It was another interesting viewpoint on the world by Malcolm. This book talks about how our first impressions can be very powerful. The example that stood out to me was a Greek Statue purchased by the J. Paul Getty museum. It was in incredible shape, so they had scientists examine it and attorneys follow the paper trail to verify its authenticity. When an antiquities expert saw it (unfortunately after it was purchased), he immediately knew it was a fake. He couldn't put his finger on it, he just knew it (and ended up being right).

Blink also presents examples of how this instinct can be clouded. For example, by asking well chosen questions, researchers can change the behavior of their research subjects. My personal example of this was when my tennis partner asked if I breathe in or out when I serve the ball. My next serve was disastrous. The wrong part of my mind was engaged and upset the delicate balance of mind and body.

Now to tie this into politics. Many Americans are having "Blink" like experiences with the changes going on. They know out of control spending can only lead to trouble. We really should be paying attention to these "Blinkers", especially our senior citizens.

Also, politicians and other power brokers know that a careful presentation of their agendas can cloud the "Blink" instincts. The result is that many people are sucked into their propaganda and support their campaigns.

I recommend reading Blink.

10,000 Hours

I have been a little bit busy lately. I spent two days last week at medical facilities for my wife's kidney stone removal (Wednesday) and my son's concussion from a basketball game (Thursday). I started thinking that universal health care sounded like a good idea. This was just before asserting myself to avoid my son being sent to the emergency on an ambulance, since their CT Scan machine was broken and they couldn't get authorization from my insurance company. It all ended nicely and I rewarded the urgent care staff with $2.40 worth of doughnut holes. Their response: a lot of smiles and a "You can never go wrong bringing nurses treats".

I had plenty of time to think about during my wait and I realized that while universal health care is a great idea, I have no confidence that our Federal Government can accomplish it effectively. The main reason is that our U.S. Constitution makes it very difficult for them to administrate such a complex enterprise. There are good reasons for this.

So why is this blog titled 10,000 hours? I'm finishing Malcolm Gladwell's book "Outliers" (I recommend it!). One of the ideas in his book is that in order to master a complex task (i.e., become a top musician, athlete, etc.) a person needs to spend about 10,000 hours. These were his findings:

• Top violinists at a performing arts school had all practiced or performed roughly 10,000 hours. The "B" Violinists had practiced 8,000 hours and "C" group about 6,000 hours
  
• Professional Canadian Hockey players had played about 10,000 hours
  
• Bill Gates had spent roughly 10,000 hours writing software before founding Microsoft
  
• The Beetles had performed about 10,000 hours before making it big (I always thought that Ed Sullivan just plucked them from Liverpool).
  

Some of these cases involved very fortunate circumstances: what month you were born in; going to a private school that happened to have access to the latest computers and living within walking distance of a university that had the same; getting a gig in Hamburg that had you performing 7 days a week.

"Outliers" also talks about the benefits of hard work and spending extra time.

Last night, I watched the General Priesthood broadcast for the LDS church. One of my favorite speakers, Dieter F. Uchtdorf, talked about being a refuge in Frankfurt, Germany after World War II. He shared two important principles he learned from this experience: Work Hard and Learn. You can listen to his talk here.