Showing posts with label Behavioral Economics. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Behavioral Economics. Show all posts

Saturday, September 12, 2009

Absolute vs. Comparative Advantage

Pres. Obama "opted" today to impose a tariff on tires imported from China [1]. It's funny that today I listened to the chapter in Thomas Sowell's book "Basic Economics" on why tariffs are a bad economic decision.

I also listened to the chapter explaining absolute economic advantage and relative economic advantage. An absolute advantage would be the case where a country can build products cheaper than another country. Dr. Sowell gave an interesting example to explain a relative advantage. Hang in there while I try to explain this (the result is surprising).

In his example, he considers two products: chairs and televisions. The countries are America and Canada. America has the absolute advantage since one American can produce 500 chairs per month while one Canadian can only produce 450. Also, an American can produce 200 television sets per month while a Canadian can only produce 100 (If you're Canadian, switch the numbers if it makes you feel better).

If there are 500 hundred American workers and 500 hundred Canadian workers, we could have 300 of each make chairs while 200 make televisions. I'll spare you the math, but the result is 190,000 chairs and 90,000 televisions.

If instead, all 500 Americans make televisions and all 500 Canadians make chairs, you end up with 225,000 chairs and 100,000 televisions. This is an increase in both numbers! The reason is "that Canada has a comparative advantage making chairs. That is, Canada loses fewer television sets by shifting resources to the production of chairs than the United States would lose by such a shift." This seemed counter-intuitive to me.

Back to tariffs. History shows that countries that reduce trade barriers prosper more (gain more jobs) than countries that impose tariffs. If this is true, why do Politicians support tariffs?

The answer is comparative advantage. For a politician that wants to get reelected, the workers (from our example, American chair makers) have the comparative advantage when voting, since they will be angry about losing their job and more likely to "vote the bum out". The rest of the voters will probably be split about the decision. The problem here is that the comparative advantage for voting is BAD for the whole economy, since this influences the politician to impose tariffs to save jobs. But what if China has a comparative advantage at making tires? Wouldn't it be better to have Americans making something that they are more productive at than making tires?

Many economists believe that the protectionist policies imposed in the 1930's are what lead us into a depression. If so, why do our politicians keep making stupid financial decisions? It's simple, they follow the economics of the vote, instead of the economics of prosperity.

What does the average citizen do about it? They attend Tea Parties and Town Hall meetings, talk to neighbors, forward emails, write on blogs, etc. Hopefully this will get the attention of politicians and result in a realignment the two economies.

Vote for prosperity!

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Saturday, July 11, 2009

Predictably Irrational - My Top 10

Just finished a good book, Predictably Irrational by Dan Ariely, a behavioral economists.

The main premise is that most economists make predictions based on how people are expected to behave, instead of how they actually behave and very often people bahave irrationally.

A couple of things I picked up (in order of what I liked best):

  1. Market vs. Social Norms
  2. Most of us live by two sets of norms: one having to do with tough business choices related to money and the other by generous, sharing with those in our social circles. I'm doing a poor job of summarizing here, but this point has helped me understand a lot of the past conflict I've experienced in my life.

  3. Moral Standards
  4. Simply recalling The Ten Commandments makes someone less likely to cheat, even if they can only recall one of the Commandments. This also worked when telling students a test was being administered according to the MIT Honor Code, which doesn't even exist.

  5. The power of money
  6. We rationalize our dishonesty more when it is less associated with money. For example, which makes you feel more guilty: accidentally taking the store clerks pen or taking the equivalent value of the pen in coins out of the tip jar. The theft is equal, yet the guilt isn't. The main point here is the enormous cost to our economy in the cumulative cost of all these little crimes (there are many other examples in the book).

  7. The Influence of Arousal
  8. I know I shouldn't shop when I'm hungry, but the book pushes this idea further. Dan makes the point that the debate over teenage sex shouldn't be whether to teach abstinence or provide condoms. We should teach teenagers to avoid putting themselves in aroused situations, where they are guaranteed to make irrational or compromised choices.

  9. Decoys
  10. Given multiple choices, we find two things that are alike and pick the better one. The irrational part is that we ignore a potentially much better choice or we allow marketers to provide "decoys" making us think our choice is a good one.

  11. Anchors
  12. We get used to paying a certain price, such as $3 for a gallon of gasoline, however a suggestion of a higher or lower price for a new product can "anchor" our minds to what is a reasonable price. The example was how a black pearl, basically worthless was turned into a priceless item.

  13. The High Price of Ownership
  14. We place an unrealistic value on things we own. Another book I read (Logic Of Life) points out that good businessmen, traders, etc. have overcome this weakness.

  15. The Cost of Zero
  16. We are suckers for the word "Free!" and make compromised decisions when faced with "free stuff". (I actually sent the author an email on this point because I think some of his assumptions were faulty).

  17. Closed Doors
  18. We will compromise in our decisions for fear of closing doors of opportunity (you need to read the book to better understand this one)

  19. Procrastination
  20. I'll put more detail here, just not right now ;-)

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