We've all heard the saying, "No pain, no gain." I would like to introduce a new saying:
No Loss, No Gloss
When I first tell people this, I can always count on a look of confusion on their faces. Let's break it down.
No Loss, No Gloss
We've all heard the saying, "No pain, no gain." I would like to introduce a new saying:
No Loss, No Gloss
When I first tell people this, I can always count on a look of confusion on their faces. Let's break it down.
No Loss, No Gloss
Everything is a red herring...almost. A red herring is most likely a true statement, but it distracts from what's truly important. Here are some examples:
The out-of-control Federal spending is leading us to a fiscal crisis. I recently posted about D.O.G.E in response to red herrings related to the department. These red herrings point to specific examples of cuts that will cause harm. Still, none of them address the real problem: the interest payments on our debt are already more than our defense spending, which will soon be our country's biggest expense item, surpassing both Social Security and Healthcare spending. I've written about this for over 15 years here, here, here, and here.
We are under attack. Cyberwarfare is conducted against the U.S. by Russia, China, Iran, North Korea, and others. These attacks are well documented in "This Is How They Tell Me The World Ends: The cyber weapons arm race" by Nicole Perlroth, and "Sandworm" by Andy Greenberg. Our enemies' goal is to create chaos in the U.S., and they are succeeding. I've written about the polarization in the U.S. here and here. Most of the political polarization is just intentionally induced red herrings.
"The world will end in X years"
→ Overstating urgency with doomsday timelines can discredit valid concerns and scientific models.
Red herring: Shifts focus from actionable mitigation to fear-based speculation.
"Anyone who questions anything is a denier"
→ Not all critiques are denial; some are about policy, economics, or priorities.
Red herring: Avoids engaging with legitimate nuances.
"It's all the fault of big oil"
→ While fossil fuel companies play a major role, blaming them exclusively avoids discussing individual or governmental responsibility.
Red herring: Oversimplifies a complex, systemic issue.
"We must act now, regardless of cost"
→ Urgency is real, but ignoring economic trade-offs can alienate support.
Red herring: Sidesteps cost-benefit or equity discussions.
"The climate has always changed"
→ True, but irrelevant to the current rate, causes, and human contributions.
Red herring: Distracts from the core issue of anthropogenic climate change.
"It was really cold last week"
→ Weather ≠ climate.
Red herring: Uses short-term data to undermine long-term trends.
"Scientists used to warn about global cooling"
→ A fringe hypothesis in the 1970s, not a serious consensus.
Red herring: Undermines current science by misrepresenting past uncertainty.
"Environmentalists are hypocrites who fly in jets"
→ Even if true, it doesn't disprove the reality of climate change.
Red herring: Attacks the messenger, not the message.
TL/DR;
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Costco Tuxedo Cake |
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Blood Glucose After Eating Tuxedo Cake |
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Instant Oatmeal |
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Relaxed Eating (Whole Oats, no walk) |
Yesterday I drove an hour away to my cousin's funeral. This post is about my drive home and its connection to my previous post on the Four Dimensions of Time.
The second dimension relates to the cumulative time spent with each person, object, or action on our main journey through the first dimension of time. The more time we spend, the deeper our relationship can become, the more adept we can be at a skill, and so on.
There were two accidents on my way home, which turned a one-hour drive into a three-hour drive. Luckily, I was in my new EV, which can be a very relaxing experience if you aren't in a rush to get somewhere. I had plenty of content on my phone to listen to. At first, I felt myself get angry at the people passing on the shoulder or sneaking into the merging lane to get ahead. But I reminded myself that I didn't need to hurry.
At the first accident, I happened to glance over at a young woman sitting on the ground, leaning against the white cement barrier. She was being attended to by an emergency medical technician (EMT). I only saw her for a second or two. In the second dimension of time, she is insignificant.
Later that night, as I lay pondering the day, I thought about how much of an inconvenience the accident had been for her. For me, it made me slow down. For her, whatever she had planned for the day was interrupted. She may have a lasting impact from any injuries she might have sustained.
We never know how a brief encounter with a stranger may impact them. Not that we have any responsibility to make an impact. We play a bigger role in life than we can ever realize.
Imagine you have a loved one who has been diagnosed with cancer. The doctor's prognosis gives a 50/50 chance of survival from treatment. The thought of losing this person to cancer is most troubling. The doctor devises a treatment plan, and your loved one starts treatment. This is an uncertain time, so you provide as much support as you can.
Then you discover that the doctor has politics you vehemently disagree with. Unfortunately, you are too far along with the treatment plan to change doctors. Still, their politics! How can someone so smart be so dumb about politics? How can they have these opinions? Of course, the doctor doesn't share his politics during medical visits.
But the thought of this person succeeding drives you crazy. Wouldn't this just embolden them in their stupid political beliefs? You find yourself secretly hoping they will fail—that will teach them!
You take advantage of every misstep or setback during treatment. "You're not so smart after all, are you, Doctor?" you say with a snarky tone. Your dying loved one looks at you incredulously. "He needs to realize that he's not perfect! You know, he's not as smart as he thinks."
Of course, this scenario is as ridiculous as this comedy sketch from College Humor.
If the video doesn't work for you, the scene shows scientists explaining to a general about an asteroid coming towards Earth for an extinction-level event. They are proposing launching missiles to stop it, when the general says, "Just Let The World Die."
But there is a sick patient. The United States.
Government Accountability Office reports $200 to $500 billion in fraud annually. That's from criminals in Russia, China, and elsewhere stealing from the U.S.
There's an ongoing obesity epidemic in the U.S.
The people in charge have only recently brought these problems, or "cancers," to our national attention and are trying to do something about them. But it seems the response is political. If we care about these problems, we should all rally together to address them.
I try to keep an open mind and critically examine information. When I hear arguments from the Right or Left, I find elements of truth in both. But reconciling the contradictions between them can be difficult. Then I was analyzing some data at work (unrelated) and came up with a way to piece both sides together. I call it "The Missing Middle."
In my experience, data can be overwhelming for many people, so to make this post accessible to more people, I'm going to keep it as simple and relevant as possible.
We are all familiar with the Bell Curve, which helps teachers assign grades in class. The problem with using it in education is that it identifies one side as good and the other side as bad. The general "Normal Distribution" curve used in science and medicine recognizes the middle as "normal" or acceptable, and the "tails" on either side as unacceptable. For example, blood pressure that's too high or too low is cause for concern.
The problem is when either side treats every action of the opposing side as alarming. If a person is criticized for everything they do, they will stop listening to criticism.
The following are some current examples.
This post is a journey through time to illustrate how one might self-reflect on the passage of time. We've all experienced "time dilation", where time seems to pass faster or slower than usual, but the following story illustrates extra dimensions of time.
If you have ever played racquet sports (or Pickleball), you should be familiar with "the sweet spot": the area in the center of the hitting surface that results in a harmonious, controlled, powerful hit of the ball.
You should also be familiar with the "Dead Zone," or area outside the sweet spot, which results in a jarring vibration and the ball going off into undesirable places.
What would be the sweet spot for governments?
Many forms of governments provide this today:
Cult of personality – Loyalty to the leader above party, law, or institutions.
Attacks on democratic institutions – Undermining trust in elections, courts, and the press (there are examples of him both complying and not complying with court decisions)
Use of propaganda – Repetition of false claims as political tools (e.g. the "stolen election")
Scapegoating minorities and immigrants – A hallmark of fascist movements
Violent or authoritarian rhetoric – Praising dictators, calling for retribution against opponents
Incitement or tolerance of political violence – Most notably, the events of January 6
No one-party state – The U.S. still has competitive elections and multiple parties (e.g. Senator Cory Booker wasn't thrown in jail for his record 24-hour filibuster. Try that in any of the Dead Zone countries).
Independent institutions remain – Courts, press, and some law enforcement have pushed back.
No centralized control of the economy or media
Fascism is a fully realized system, not just a style of politics
Let's try examining tariffs in an attempt to decouple the idea from the current political polarization. I'll use a similar approach to examining minimum wage in my post Intellectual Vision.
Tariffs are a tax on goods or services from another country. A tariff schedule includes a detailed list of products along with tariff rates (% of value and/or a specific amount) and country of origin.
If a country raises tariffs, the importer (not exporter) pays the fees. The importer can pay the fees out of profits or pass the costs onto customers. The customers may just agree to pay the extra costs or may decided not to buy the product. If they don't buy the product, they may be able to find another equivalent alternative. If they can find another alternative, it will most likely cost more than or not be the ideal fit of the import. If the alternative product is produced domestically, then these businesses can benefit from the additional demand and potentially increase production. Since this demand is essentially incentivized by the tariffs, the business is not experiencing competituve pressure to innovate or cut costs, potentially resulting in higher costs than necessary.
If the customers can't find an equivalent alternative, they will have to find a product that doesn't meet the same needs or may have to make due without the product.
The fees paid by the importer are collected by the government. These fees can be used by the government for productive manipulation of the economy, for example, by lowering taxes on consumers, offsetting the increased costs. These fees can also be used for non-productive applications, such as paying for excess government spending or special programs. In this case, the customer of the tariffed product ends up subsidizing the government program.
With complicated global supply chains, raising tariffs can end up hurting domestic producers that rely on foreign goods to make their products. Raising tariffs can have hidden costs such as creating an extra burden on businesses to adapt to changing rules.
After WWII, the U.S. lowered tariffs to promote global trade and economic recovery to help with post-war reconstruction.
If tariffs are lowered, a greater variety and quality of products can be found by consumers. Prices typically drop and global competition forces all suppliers to become more efficient. Foreign products may harm domestic suppliers if they can compete with cheaper foreign imports (due to cheaper labor or less regulation). Some domestic producers may benefit if they can by cheaper foreign parts for their products. If companies become dependent on foreign parts, this could result in supply chain disruptions, for example during a pandemic or war. If a domestic product is considered nationally strategic (e.g. defense, semiconductors), then lowering tariffs can put the national interests at risk.
With lower tariffs, a foreign government may reciprocate with lower tariffs. If they do, this may open new foreign markets for domestic producers.
An example of this is NAFTA (The North American Free Trade Agreement), where lower tariffs between the U.S., Mexico, and Canada resulted in generally lower prices on imports from the other countries, however many small Mexican corn farmers were put out of business as they couldn't compete with the large U.S. subsidized corn farms.
These last two examples bring up the issue of unfair trade practices, where a government can subsidize a product, then flood a foreign market with cheaper goods to destroy local industries. This can result in foreign monopolies taking over. This is the reasoning for high tariffs on many Chinese products.
Foreign governments may instead keep their tariffs high, creating an unfair trade balance.
Reference:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_tariffs_in_the_United_States
An ideological vision is more than a belief in a principle. It is the belief that that that principle is crucial or overriding, so that other principles or even empirical facts must give way when in conflict with it.
-Thomas Sowell, "Knowledge and Decisions"
Imagine that you are young and considering a future career. Your research leads you to Accounting. You find the premier accounting school, apply, and are elated when accepted into the program. At orientation, a senior classmate validates your decision with the following speech:
"Accounting is the most important career. You might ask how can that be? How about a brain surgeon? But where does a brain surgeon perform his best work? In a state-of-the-art operating room, in a hospital. It took money, budgets, and planning to pay for this facility. And who did that? Accountants. Where did that surgeon learn his skills? At a university. How did that place of learning come to exist and continue? Accountants. If you think about anything good in the world, it took Accountants to make it happen."
You're young and excited to be part of this critical community. The department has social events, study groups, and symposiums. With every encounter of your classmates, you hear testimonials of the superiority of accounting. You are unknowingly being indoctrinated.
You throw yourself into your schoolwork but must take unrelated general education courses. You complain: "This is a distraction from my goal of being a great accountant!" You take a class on a whim that sounds interesting and find you enjoy it more than accounting. You spend extra hours on the coursework and shoot to the top of your class. It's easy...and fun! Your professor takes notice of you and invites you to work with him. You continue with sequential courses and are forced into a challenging situation. Do you change your major? You decide to follow your passion and change your major. You are shunned by the accounting students, but find a new group to associate with. You graduate and land an amazing job. Every day, you can't believe you are getting paid to do what you love.
Still, early indoctrination in accounting makes you doubt your decision. Rationally, you know you did the right thing, but deep down, you question your decision to leave Accounting.
... if you can't see anything wrong with the side you agree with, and you can't see anything right with the side that you disagree with, you have been manipulated.
Why the title? "The Absurdity of Ideology." Ignoring empirical facts and a diversity of viewpoints is absurd. Our survival on this planet is due to continual adaptation. How many of the current major conflicts in the world are due to conflicting ideologies?
Many of my younger friends have shared with me their pessimism and grim outlook for the future. I then share my optimism, which earns the reply "How can I ignore all the frightening news?" This is what I tell them.
TL/DR;
The news media has been sharing the worst possible outcomes for many crises during my lifetime: The Cold War, Nuclear Weapons, Acid Rain, Skylab falling, the Energy Crisis, the Ozone Hole, Y2K, and the election of every president that I can remember. I have concluded that everyone is poor at predicting the future, especially when they present the worst case scenario. I decided to make the most of the present and ignore the noise.
My entire upbringing we were under the threat of communism with the potential for nuclear winter and the extinction of the human species. Ronald Reagan called the USSR the "Evil Empire", movies showed the Soviets invading the U.S.
In 1989, the unthinkable happened when the Berlin Wall came down. In 1991, the Soviet Union collapsed. Nuclear Disarmament treaties significantly reduced the world's stockpiles of atomic weapons. While there is still a nuclear threat, the fear mongering has decreased. (By the way, I highly recommend the Netflix documentary "Turning Point: the Bomb and the Cold War."
The Clean Air Act was amended, and the Geneva Convention on Long-Range Transboundary Air Pollution created an international agreement that resulted in improvements. While it is still a problem in some countries with potential long-term environmental impact, we don't hear much about it.
I've become numb to the overhyped fearmongering and dire predictions in the media. I have tried unsuccessfully to predict the future and realize that I am not only bad at it, but so is everyone else.
I decided to make the most of the present and wait a few years to see if other's predictions actually pan out.
"The Culture of Fear" by Barry Glassner.
"Hate, Inc." by Matt Taibbi.
We need to take an honest look at the Department of Government Efficiency (D.O.G.E), specifically:
The U.S. Federal government has had many episodes of peaking debt in the last two centuries. Typically, these are due to war (the Civil War, WWI, WWII, the Cold War, the War on Terrorism) or major financial crises (the Great Depression, 2008 Credit Crunch, COVID). For each of these, there is a precipitous drop in debt due to spending cuts, raising taxes, and economic growth. Except for our current 25-year run-up in debt.
For example, America experienced a massive economic boom after WWII since our infrastructure was unscathed, allowing us to be competitive worldwide.
After the end of the Cold War in the early 1990s, Bill Clinton, with bipartisan support from Congress, was able to balance the budget and start paying off the debt. They used tax increases and spending cuts. They also benefited from the tech boom of the late 1990s, which resulted in higher tax revenues. Unfortunately, they also used Social Security surpluses to offset deficits.
A good measure of debt is the ratio of debt to GDP, with debt typically rising 30% to 80% about pre-crisis levels. The previous highest level was 119% at the height of WWII. The debt is now at about 122%. Twenty years of the war on terror, the financial crisis in 2008, COVID in 2020, all contributed to the debt, but the country also experienced steady growth during this time.
The Federal government spends $2 trillion more each year than it takes in. Half of that is used to pay the interest on our current $36 trillion debt. I recommend examining the US Debt Clock or reading my post If We Ran Our Households Like The Federal Government.
So why can't we just keep doing what we've been doing?
“Going from PayPal, I thought well, what are some of the other problems that are likely to most affect the future of humanity?”
Once again, Elon is criticized for over-promising and under-delivering. He also has the same intense management style, which is high-pressure and demands long hours. Tesla has faced regulatory scrutiny and legal challenges due to its aggressive business practices, product claims, and workplace issues.
In August 2021, Joe Biden held an Electric Vehicle summit at the White House to promote the transition to cleaner transportation and address climate change. The Detroit's big three automakers were invited with President Biden highlighting GM's CEO Mary Barra, stating "I think she's one of the reasons we're here today". No one from Tesla was invited, and no recognition was given for Tesla's contributions.
Good: Elon emphasized his commitment to free speech and said he would be more open to diverse opinions and less prone to content moderation and censorship. His vision was to allow people to engage in open dialogue, fostering a marketplace of ideas without heavy-handed moderation. He made efforts to combat bots and fake accounts. He streamlined operations and adopted cost-cutting measures to make the platform more profitable. For example, he found that many employees were idle, that company-provided gourmet lunches were thrown in the trash, etc. He has explored using artificial intelligence to improve user experience and content moderation.
Bad: The first problem is that Elon didn't practice due diligence in his purchase and significantly overpaid for Twitter. Some believe that hate speech, misinformation, and harassment have become more prevalent. The uncertainty during the transition resulted in revenue decreases and advertisers leaving the platform.
Good: Elon is a proven efficiency expert with an outsider perspective. He has tech-driven innovation and attempts to promote public accountability by posting about inefficiencies on the X platform. He is acting fast, as opposed to the usual stalemate of government action.
Bad: Musk has massive conflicts of interest with many government agencies providing oversight of his various companies. His "fail fast, fix fast" style could destabilize the government and paralyze critical services. Musk lacks public administration expertise, where public trust is paramount. After the Chornobyl disaster, Mikhail Gorbachev said:
Everything that a top leader says in such situations has to be carefluly weighed and has to be very fully informed. So you always have to bear in mind that in such situations there is always a danger of panic.
For example, Elon posted on X a list of the number of people in various age ranges in the Social Security database, showing many people over 120 years of age. To follow Gorabachev's advice, this should have included more information, such as how many of those people were actively receiving benefits and details on some of the outliers over 200 years old. Instead, there was a lot of confusion.
Only time will tell how much good or harm Musk will do in this role.
Recently, I was referred to the "Tangle" podcast and have enjoyed their balanced reporting. I eagerly listened to "The legal fight over DOGE's budget cuts." They present the Left's take, the Right's take, and then "My take". "My take" was presented by Ari Weitzman. I agree with his criticisms of the cutting being done by DOGE.
He asked, "Why not leverage an existing agency - the Government Accountability Office (GAO) or the Congressional Budget Office - to lead the charge?" I thought this was a good point, but then I thought, "Why aren't they already doing this? Why haven't they been sounding the alarms?"
In the Netflix documentary "Turning Point: The Bomb and the Cold War," there are several instances that the World has moments away from nuclear annihilation. Stanislav Petrov (at great risk) ignored a false alarm of U.S. incoming nuclear missiles, avoiding full-scale nuclear war. A Soviet overreaction to U.S. military games, Able Archer, in 1983, was de-escalated when Leonard Perroots recommended winding down the U.S. operations. Daniel Ellsberg said,
"We see time and again that it's the individuals who have the courage to stand up and make a call, not the system that necessarily works."
Remember that Daniel Ellsberg was the one who released the Pentagon Papers in 1971, revealing government deception regarding the Vietnam War.
Can we rely on our current system to resolve our budget crisis? Or do we need a brave individual? I don't know who should do it, but I'm glad it's part of the national conversation. Hopefully, we can be more honest about it.
Imagine all the amazing creations: the starry night, brilliant sunset, flowers, fruit on the vine, etc. It's easy to assume there is a craftsman who created harmonious beauty: the oceans evaporate, clouds form, the wind blows the clouds to land, the clouds drop rain on the plants, the plants grow flowers, the bees pollinate the flowers, the flowers turn into fruit, animals eat the fruit and spread the seed, bacteria and insects break down the animal's waste making fertilizer for the plants to grow.
We humans consider ourselves to be the most significant of creations. But let's look at how humans fit into these creations over space and time.
The craftsman (God) has been creating for billions of years, yet man has only been around for a fraction of that (0.002%). Imagine a craftsman who has produced countless works of art for 70 years, and then 9 hours ago, the craftsman created something new (man). How could you claim that this most recent creation was the most significant? Could tomorrow's creation (in 500,000 years) or next month's creation (in 15 million years) be superior?
What about the vastness of space? God's work can be found all around the visible universe, billions of light-years away, with portions of the universe that exist beyond what we can see. A spectacular galaxy appears as nothing more than one of a billion bright dots in our night sky. It would be as if our hypothetical craftsman reproduced all of the works of art on the planet, miniaturized them, and placed them as the period at the end of this sentence. What's the point of that? (no pun intended). If we are the most significant creation, and all of this was created for us, what's the point of so much beauty we can't see with the naked eye? Sure, we can be in awe at what our telescopes discover, but what about all humans who never saw more than a speck in the sky? Is it wasteful: the immensity of space and the fact that we could never reach any of it in a lifetime?
Humans are just a little figurine crafted 9 hours ago in the corner of an immense workshop.
But surely, the craftsman cares most about this creation. How often do people fall on their knees, pleading for help from the craftsman? How often do these cries go unanswered? Is God an interventionist being who is willing to step in and repair our situation? Surely, the millions of Jewish people who died during the Holocaust deserved an intervention. Surely, the millions of Hindus and Muslims who died from famine and violence before and after obtaining independence in India from the British deserved an intervention. Surely, the 40 to 80 million who died of starvation and persecution under Mao Zedong deserved an intervention. This list could continue for pages.
Maybe God isn't an interventionist.
Maybe God is just a craftsman who created a beautiful world for us.