The Reason We Are So Polarized: Accuracy vs. Precision

 TL/DR;

• Accuracy refers to how close a measurement is to a true value
• Precision refers to how close measurements of the same item are to each other
• We tend to listen to and associate with others that believe like we do (precision).
• We mistake precision for confidence of truth (accuracy)
• The underlying cause is cognitive bias

The election is over and hopefully we can get past the emotion and start thinking rationally.  This is my attempt at providing some thought on this.  

In science, there is a useful metaphor of throwing darts at a dart board, used to explain accuracy vs. precision. Each x in the figure below represents where a dart hit the board.  I would like to apply this 

metaphor to beliefs and ideologies. 

The center of the dart board is truth.  As you move out from the center, you are further from the truth.  The darts (x's) represent each of the things we believe are true.  We all want to consider ourselves in the top left quadrant above: high accuracy, high precision.  In this quadrant, not only are we right, we are right all of the time.  My observation is that when it comes to politics (or religion), most people are actually in the top right quadrant: low accuracy, high precision.  They align very well with their friends on social media and their favorite news sources.  

Currently in politics there are actually two clusters, one on the right and one on the left.  When I talk to my friends that are either left or right leaning, I listen, impressed by their passion.  When I bring up information that would promote a balanced point of view, I feel treated as a heretic (or I'm ignored).  Because their cluster is so tight, they have confidence.  It's just misplaced confidence.

I'm not saying that I'm always right.  I'm more in the bottom right quadrant: low accuracy, low precision.  But occasionally I come across a head scratcher.  Here's a couple examples.

Do you remember this photo of Kellyanne Conway with her feet on the couch in the Oval Office?  How disrespectful, right?

Did you ever see the whole photo or know what the occasion was?  Here's the whole photo.

It was a meeting with leaders of historically black colleges and universities.  Why wasn't it reported what the meeting was about?  Unless you feel too comfortable in your precision cluster, you might want to find out.

There are legitimate and "accurate" reasons to find fault with Trump, but if he does something right, are you willing to give him credit?

On the other side, there were many times when I would read a headline criticizing one of Obama's speech.  They would take one comment and twist it into a different narrative.  I would then go and listen to the entire speech and find that it was very inspiring, patriotic, etc.  Stuff like being a good dad. 

Here are some specific examples of how the polarized clusters choose precision over accuracy:

• Whether dangling chads should be counted as votes (This was the election of 2000 and the reason I became an independent)
• Whether mail in ballots are acceptable (they've been an option for decades)
• Whether everyone should wear a mask (I've gotten funny looks when I haven't worn one, like on a walk outside.  I've also gotten funny looks when I have worn one, like when I was walking by a gardener blowing a bunch of dust in the air).
• Whether or not a successful national health care system in a much smaller country would scale to wildly diverse country OR is the success or failures of the DMV or post office an accurate comparison to a national health care system (I always get my mail, though the postal service does have its struggles).
• Whether global warming and climate change are the greatest risk to humanity OR a complete hoax (Isn't there a sane middle ground?  Are carbon credits the only way of dealing with this?) 
• Whether funding planned parenthood or supporting Roe vs. Wade results in more or fewer abortions.  I'm betting the answer is very nuanced.

The reasons that humans find themselves in these precision clusters away from the accurate bullseye is due to cognitive biases.  If you are interested in choosing accuracy over precision, you first have to overcome these biases.  Below is a quick reference to help you understand them better.  I also highly recommend the book "Mistakes Were Made, But Not By Me" by  Carol Tavris and Elliot Aronson.